The REAL reason I haven't written in a week...

It may shock you

It’s summer. Markets are boring. There is just not that much to say! That’s why I haven’t been writing.

BUT that might change tomorrow, as we have CPI and dot plots. Buckle up!

Not going to lie, the market seems a little complacent for a big week like this. The last few CPI / Dot Plot days have seen hedging the day before. Not this one.

In fact markets have rallied a bit this week.

VIX is also close to the lows on the year, in the 12 handle.

Who had “two major wars happening and inflation remaining elevated but VIX at ATL and stocks at ATH” on their 2024 bingo card?

Fed and CPI

Anyone who is telling you they have some great idea about how CPI is going to come in is lying. So I’m not going to try to pretend that I can predict CPI.

I will say that this CPI number is very, very important. The world has entered a hiking cycle, with both the ECB and the BoC(anada) cutting rates. The Fed wants to follow suit. One more cold CPI print might be all they need to see.

The market is leaning bullish, and I agree. My big refrain since I started this substack has been “what if things go better than we expect?”

I see a lot of strong tailwinds for big tech, and for the US in general. I’m bullish.

But that doesn’t mean tomorrow oculdn’t be very painful if we get a hot CPI and a hawkish Fed.